A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
